Composite heat score
Heat score · refreshed 16 Oct 2026 17:02 · not a timing signal
Heat is a toy composite of published gauges. It does not time crashes. High readings can last for years.
How this is calculated →Heat over time
Composite historyReconstructed weekly temp_v1 from 2015 using last-known CAPE and Buffett; live nightly snapshots after first ingest. Expanding-window percentiles.
As-of mix: CAPE official monthly · others daily · GDP lags.
Why the number is 70
Equal-weight percentiles, v1-
Valuation — Shiller CAPE
30.8 official · 0.1 daily estimate · 15 Oct 2026
High = hot
95
-
Valuation — Buffett Indicator
255% of GDP · Z.1 / GDP · 1 Apr 2026
High = hot
100
-
Fear — VIX
16.5 index · 15 Oct 2026
Inverted · low volatility = hot
57
-
Credit — US HY OAS
3.23% spread · 15 Oct 2026
Inverted · low spread = hot
27
-
Conditions — NFCI
-0.50 index · 9 Oct 2026
Inverted · tighter conditions = cold
61
Underlying gauges
Each card links to its detail page once per-series history is stored.
Shiller CAPE
1 Sep 202330.8
est. 0.1
Price divided by ten-year inflation-adjusted average earnings.
Source: Shiller ie_data.xls · estimate uses FRED SP500
Buffett Indicator
1 Apr 2026255%
of GDP (Z.1 equities)
Fed Z.1 market value of nonfinancial corporate equities divided by latest quarterly nominal GDP. Quarterly, lagged.
Source: FRED NCBEILQ027S ÷ GDP
2s10s spread
15 Oct 2026+0.33
pp
Ten-year yield minus two-year yield; negative means an inverted curve.
Source: FRED T10Y2Y
VIX
15 Oct 202616.5
index
Implied 30-day volatility on S&P 500 options, a rough fear proxy.
Source: FRED VIXCLS
US HY OAS
15 Oct 20263.23%
option-adjusted spread
Extra yield demanded to hold high-yield credit over Treasuries.
Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
Chicago Fed NFCI
9 Oct 2026-0.50
index (0 = average)
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Above zero is tighter than average conditions.
Source: FRED NFCI
Sessions
FX shown as transmission, not valuationUS
S&P 500
7637.76
US cash session. Also the CAPE scale factor. · 2026-09-17
VIX
15.44
US implied vol. In heat (inverted). · 2026-09-17
Europe
Nasdaq Euro 50
1589.87
Euro-area large caps via FRED. Not EURO STOXX 50. · 2026-09-17
USD per EUR
1.16
H.10 noon NY. Up = stronger euro vs dollar. · 2026-09-11
Asia
Nikkei 225
65018.95
Tokyo cash session. Nikkei Inc. via FRED; personal display. · 2026-09-18
JPY per USD
153.71
H.10. Up = weaker yen vs dollar. · 2026-09-11
A note on what this can and cannot tell you
Elevated valuations and calm credit markets can persist for years without anything breaking, and they have. Nothing here identifies a turning point, recommends a position, or accounts for your circumstances. It is a sourced read-out of published gauges, presented with its as-of dates so you can judge how stale each figure is. Not investment advice.